Category: Blog

Understanding the Oil War between Russia and Saudi Arabia

Understanding the Oil War between Russia and Saudi Arabia, Oil WarOver the past six years, domestic crude oil has experienced a volatile ride. 2014 saw the emergence of American shale as producers were attracted to the $114 price levels. However, in 2016 the price for a barrel eventually fell to $27 as a global supply glut developed. 2016 also saw Russia and Saudi Arabia form an oil pact that drew together Russia and OPEC, leading to the so-called OPEC+ to navigate the global oil market. This agreement would eventually culminate into the current crude oil tensions that exist between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Through the early 2000s – up until the financial crisis of 2008 – increasing global demand accounted for the rising price per barrel of oil. After reaching a high of $147.27 the week of July 7, 2008, the financial crisis’ effects brought the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude down to a low of $32.98 in December of 2008, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, with the economy recovering through 2009, the price of WTI crude oil rose to the high $70s and low $80s.

After the world emerged from the financial crisis, world oil markets were rocked by geopolitical tensions from the political revolution in Egypt during January 2011, spiking the price of crude oil to $100 a barrel. Prices stayed in the $90 to $100 per barrel range, until the end of 2014. With increased production in North America, reduced demand from emerging economies and increased storage of crude worldwide, the price per barrel of crude oil in 2016 traded in the low $30s per barrel. The price of oil fell because Saudi Arabia attempted to flood the world market with excess oil to lower the per-barrel price to bankrupt the emerging U.S. frackers.   

In reaction to the low oil prices, OPEC and its non-OPEC oil-producing countries agreed to reduce their total output by 1.8 million barrels in December 2016, taking effect in January 2017. After OPEC reversed itself and increased output in June 2018, it again cut output for 2019. The price of WTI rose to the mid-$70s by October 2018, which can also be attributed to a drop in Venezuela’s oil production, and the re-introduction and increase in severity of sanctions against Iran.

A November 2018 report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) relayed that the U.S. produced 11.3 million barrels in August 2018. With the report’s news, additional Russian oil production and even some OPEC countries producing more, it brought WTI down to $51 per barrel. Fast forward to March 2020, with the coronavirus sending shockwaves and diminishing demand, oil prices fell.

This led to a meeting in Vienna on March 5 for OPEC and its (+) or other major oil-producing companies throughout the world to discuss production cuts in hopes of increasing the price of oil. During this meeting, OPEC and its (+) members discussed whether to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels a day through the end of June 2020. OPEC asked Russia and those (+) members to cooperate with the production cuts. However, on March 6, Russia did not agree to reduce oil production. This immediately dropped the price of oil by 10 percent.

With the coronavirus pandemic beginning at the end of 2019, manufacturing and transportation decreased, reducing the global thirst for oil. Based on these events, the International Energy Association (IEA) announced in the middle of February that global consumption would fall to 825,000 barrels per day.

Russia said that reducing production was premature because it was and still is uncertain of how the coronavirus will affect global oil prices. Additionally, they cited political instability in Libya, where approximately one million barrels per day were expected to be offline from production.

In light of the unknown extent of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on oil demand, Russia and its oil producers reportedly offered to maintain the existing 1.7 million barrels per day cut for the next three months that OPEC+ already had in place. However, OPEC didn’t agree to this offer.

Beginning on March 8, Saudi Arabia gave crude oil buyers discounts of between $6 and $8 per barrel to European, Asian and American buyers. This set a downward cascade of the price of oil, lowering Brent Crude by 30 percent and West Texas Intermediate by 20 percent.

Starting March 9, the drop in oil prices coupled with the global coronavirus pandemic exerted a major impact on world markets. Russia’s ruble dropped by 7 percent shortly thereafter. While the price of oil recovered a little after the impact, it set off a production war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Beginning March 10, Russia began pumping an additional 300,000 barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia ramped up its production to 12.3 million barrels per day, up from 9.7 million.

Impact on Markets

These two factors led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 1,300 points in pre-market trading on March 9, with the DOW ultimately falling 2,000 points during intraday trading. Along with NASDAQ falling by nearly 7 percent and the S&P 500 dropping more than 7 percent, global markets fared worse. This was evidenced by the Italian FTSE MIB Index losing more than 11 percent. 

Producer Implications

When it comes to how the crude oil war is impacting shale producers in North America, it’s important to note that prices of $40 per barrel must be sustained to keep producers afloat, according to consultant Enverus. However, production cuts are imminent at the bottom of the $30 a barrel price point, and there’s certainly no expectations of new oilfield development.

Based upon forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 2020 U.S. production of crude oil is expected to drop from 13.2 million barrels per day to 12.8 million barrels per day by December, finally leveling off to 12.7 million barrels per day in 2021.   

Much like the volatility going on with the coronavirus pandemic, global markets are also expecting further volatility for the world’s energy market.

CARES Act – Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act

CARES Act – Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security ActU.S. Government Provides Relief to Individuals, Businesses in Midst of COVID-19 Crisis

On March 27, President Donald Trump signed into law a historic $2 trillion stimulus package designed to provide economic relief to individuals and businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

Our aim in this alert is to give a brief overview of both the tax and non-tax provisions of the government’s new stimulus legislation, including what type of assistance is available for individuals and businesses, how to apply for it, and what to do if you become unemployed. The summary is divided into two sections, one for individuals and one for businesses.

Individual Provisions

Stimulus Payments: Amounts and Eligibility

  • Most adults will receive $1,200; each qualifying child under 16 years old will receive $500.
    • The amount you receive is based on your tax filing status and reported adjusted gross income (AGI).
      • Single filers with an AGI of $75k or less will receive the full $1,200; with a full phase-out at $99k
      • Married filers with an AGI of $150k or less will receive the full $2,400; with a full phase-out at $198k
      • Heads of households with an AGI of $112.5k or less will receive the full $1,200
  • Having qualifying children will increase the phase-out threshold slightly for all groups
  • Those claimed as a dependent by another taxpayer will not receive any stimulus money
  • Recipients need to have a legitimate Social Security number to receive payment, except for military members
  • Currently there is only one stimulus payment scheduled; however, there has been discussion of additional future payments

Proof of Income

  • If prepared, your 2019 tax return is the basis of your eligibility; if not, use your return from 2018
  • If you still have not filed for 2018, you can use a 2019 statement from the Social Security administration as proof of income to qualify

Applying for the Payment and Receipt

  • If the IRS has your bank information from prior tax filings, then you don’t need to do anything. The money will simply be direct deposited into your account based on already filed income tax information
  • Most people should expect to receive the money approximately three weeks from the bill’s passage date

Other Considerations

  • Unemployed persons are eligible to receive payments
  • You will not need to pay income tax on these payments
  • Generally, this payment is exempt from all forms of wage garnishment; however, not in all cases for child support garnishments

Unemployment Benefits: Who is Covered?

  • The bill expands eligibility for unemployment benefits, including part-time and self-employed workers
  • Self-employed persons are newly eligible for unemployment benefits and their benefit is calculated based on previous income using a formula from the Disaster Unemployment Assistance program
  • Part-time worker benefits are state dependent

Amount of the Benefit

  • Unemployment benefits still vary by state, but generally the bill aims to compensate for the average worker’s paycheck by providing extra payments to cover the gap between traditional state unemployment and actual wages
  • Eligible workers can get as much as $600 per week in addition to their state benefit; this includes self-employed and part-time workers
  • States are free to pay the whole amount at once or send the top-up portion separately

How Long Will It Last?

  • The bill provides an additional 13 weeks on top of whatever each state already provides; however, unemployment benefits cannot last more than 39 weeks total
    • Those already receiving unemployment benefits are still eligible for the 13-week benefit extension as well as the $600 weekly benefit top-up
  • The incremental $600 payment is only good for up to four months, through the end of July

Other Considerations

  • Coverage also extends to those who can’t work because they are required to self-quarantine and people unable to travel to work because of imposed quarantine restrictions
  • If the main household earner dies as result of the coronavirus, the survivor is eligible for their unemployment benefit
  • People who can work from home or are already receiving paid sick or family leave are not eligible

Student Loans

  • For six months (April 2020 to September 2020) there is an automatic suspension of student loan payments for loans held by the federal government (private loans excluded)
    • You may choose to keep paying down the principal if you desire

Retirement Account Rule Changes

  • For 2020, the minimum distribution requirements on IRAs, 401(k), 403(b) plans, etc. are suspended
    • This is not applicable to pensions
  • Up to $100k may be withdrawn early without being subject to the typical 10 percent early withdrawal penalty; and income taxes owed on withdrawals may be spread over three years from the date of distribution
    • To qualify for these exemptions, you need to prove the need was related to the COVID-19 outbreak, which includes if you, your spouse or a dependent tested positive for the virus or if you suffered adverse economic costs due to the COVID-19 crisis
  • Loan limits on workplace retirement plans (401k, etc.) are doubled, allowing participants to take loans of as much as $100k if they can prove they’ve been affected by the pandemic

Charitable Contributions

  • The bill creates a new charitable deduction of up to $300 available for those who can’t itemize their deductions for donations to qualified charities
  • The limit on charitable deductions (those that are itemized) are increased, allowing donors to deduct up to 100 percent of donations against 2020 AGI. For example, if you have $1.3 million in income, you can donate $1.3 million and deduct the entire amount
    • Only cash gifts to public charities qualify; you cannot donate stocks or gift via private foundations to be eligible

Miscellaneous Provisions: Renter’s Relief

  • The law puts a temporary 120-day nationwide stop to evictions if the landlord has a mortgage from a governmental agency, such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and others. Additionally, landlords are not allowed to charge penalties for delinquencies during this period.

Business Provisions

Charitable Deductions

  • The 10 percent limitation on charitable donations is increased to 25 percent of taxable income

Qualified Property Improvements

  • Businesses will have the option to write off costs that are typically only depreciable over a 30-year period, especially businesses in the hospitality industry

Small Business Administration (SBA) Loans

  • Small businesses and non-profits that have 500 employees (full- and part-time) or fewer are eligible to receive SBA loans of up to $10 million
  • The loans may be used to cover the cost of payroll, paid leave, group health benefits, mortgage and rent payments, utilities and interest on other debts
  • No collateral or personal guarantees are required

Employee Retention Credit

  • Employers are eligible for a payroll tax credit of up to 50 percent of wages paid during the COVID-19 crisis, which is defined as March 13, 2020, through the end of the year, up to a maximum credit of $5,000 per employee
  • The credit is limited to employers whose operations have been suspended due to the virus outbreak or whose gross receipts have fallen by more than 50 percent compared to the same quarter in the prior year

Payroll Tax Deferral

  • Employers can defer their 6.2 percent portion of the FICA tax (Social Security portion only), delaying payment over two years with 50 percent due in 2021 and the other 50 percent due by 2022.

Net Operating Loss (NOL) Changes

  • The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act disallowed the carryback of NOL completely; and before this in 2018, only a two-year carryback was allowed. This bill allows a five-year carryback for losses from 2018, 2019 and 2020; and taxpayers can amend prior year’s returns as well.
  • The 80 percent limit on NOLs for these same years is removed, allowing a 100 percent reduction in taxable income.

Business Interest Expense Deductions

  • Business interest that falls under Section 163(j) gets an increased deduction limit from 30 percent to 50 percent of taxable income for 2019 and 2020.
  • 2019 taxable income can be used to calculate the interest limitation for 2020 if it’s more favorable
    • The above is not applicable to partnerships

Should You File an Amended 2018 Return?

Amended 2018 Tax ReturnDuring the holiday season in December, Congress passed the Consolidated Budget Appropriations Act of 2020. Included in this Act was a tax package that renewed more than 24 tax provisions through what are known as extenders. An extender makes a tax provision effective retroactively. Some of the extender provisions are rather esoteric, so we’ll only focus on those most applicable to the broader taxpayer base.

Extenders in More Detail

Among the widely applicable extender provisions, there are the following. It’s best to check with your tax professional to see which of the more than two dozen extenders may apply to your personal situation.

  • Deducting PMI (private mortgage insurance) if you itemize
  • The delusionality of some types of tuition and fees
  • The ability to exclude debt forgiveness on a qualified residence

Wait, I Don’t Understand What Happened?

Most people are probably wondering at this point how they can obtain the benefit of these retroactive changes, which were not allowed when they filed their original 2018 tax return. The answer is to file an amended tax return – or Form 1040X.

Taxpayers often need to file an amended return when they receive updated or changed inputs, such as when a brokerage sends a corrected Form 1099. Unlike this situation where the basis of your filing changed due to updated information, with the extenders you’ll only want to file if it’s to your benefit.

But Do I Have to File an Amended Return?

Tax law does not actually require that a taxpayer file an amended return when learning the original return submitted did not reflect the correct amount of tax. The assumption is that it was correct the first time. Amendments are allowed, but they are not mandatory.

If you do choose to file an amended return, you have to adjust everything to reflect the tax law and any changes in the information received. You are not allowed to pick and choose only the favorable difference between the original and amended filing.

OK, But Should I File an Amended Return?

The answer to this question is probably a tax accountant’s favorite – it depends.

The most frequent worry among taxpayers is that filing an amended return will trigger an IRS audit. This fear arises from the fact that generally returns are filed and processed electronically, but all amended returns are processed by live people. The biggest risk here is to not include a full explanation of the changes in the return, including what is different, why it’s changed and the basis for the difference.

Refund or No Refund – Does it Matter?

Another question that often perplexes taxpayers is whether they should file an amended return if doing so will not result in an additional refund. Just because your amended tax return won’t result in a check in your mailbox, there are situations where it’s still to your benefit. One example is if the amended return will increase your capital or passive loss carryforwards.

The Sands of Time

Since amended returns are processed by people and not electronically, the turn-around time is a bit longer than most returns. The IRS says amended tax returns typically take eight to 12 weeks, but it’s often longer.

Conclusion

While you might not have to file an amended return, it could be to your benefit from either the tax extenders, corrected information that arrived after your initial filing or a combination of both. Every taxpayer situation is different, so it’s best to consult us.

Supporting Veteran Careers, Protecting the Food Supply, and Reducing Wasted Government Spending

Supporting Veterans in STEM Careers Act (S 153) – This bill encourages veterans to participate in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields in a variety of ways, including making veterans eligible for certain National Science Foundation (NSF) programs. The Act directs the Office of Science and Technology Policy to establish an interagency working group to improve veteran and military spouse representation in STEM fields, and authorizes funding for the Government Accountability Office to study 1) the academic success rates of student veterans pursuing an undergraduate degree in STEM and related fields; and 2) the barriers faced by such students in pursuing such degrees. This legislation was sponsored by Sen. Marco Rubio (D-FL) on Jan. 16, 2019. It was passed in the Senate in December, the House in January, and was signed into law by the president on Feb. 11.

Protecting America’s Food and Agriculture Act of 2019 (S 2107) – This legislation directs U.S. Customs and Border Protection to hire and train more agricultural inspectors at land, air, and seaports to prevent African swine fever and other foreign animal diseases from entering the United States. The legislation was sponsored by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). It was introduced on July 11, 2019, passed the Senate (October) and then-House (February) and is currently waiting to be signed by the president.

Payment Integrity Information Act of 2019 (S 375) – This bipartisan bill is designed to reduce federal government waste in the form of overpayments, underpayments, payments made to ineligible recipients or payments that are not properly documented. It authorizes the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to establish pilot programs to test potential accountability mechanisms for compliance requirements, such as updating a plan to improve the integrity and usage of Social Security death data. The Act was introduced on Feb. 7, 2019, by Sen. Thomas Carper (D-DE); it passed the Senate in July, the House in February and is currently waiting to be enacted.

Presidential Transition Enhancement Act of 2019 (S 394) – This law requires eligible presidential candidates (as of September of an election year) to develop and release transition team ethics plans, including how they will address their own conflicts of interest, prior to election day. It also is designed to focus a transitioning government on ongoing issues in the public interest during the changeover so that priorities are not shifted to solely address those of special interest lobbyists. The bipartisan bill, introduced by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on Feb.7, 2019, was passed by the Senate in August and the House in February. It is awaiting signature by the president.

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Implementation Act (HR 5340) – Introduced by Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), this legislation represents the new trade agreement between the United States, Mexico, and Canada to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. This bill passed in both the House and Senate and was signed by the president on Jan. 29. Mexico has also signed the agreement. However, Canada is still in the process of getting it ratified through Parliamentary procedures.

PIRATE Act (HR 583) – This bill dramatically increases the fine for operating a “Pirate Radio” station, in which people set up their own stations outside the official Federal Communications Commission (FCC) system. The maximum fine increases from $19,639 to $100,000 per day, with a maximum total fine, capped at $2 million, up from $147,290. The legislation was introduced by Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) in January 2019. It passed in the House in February 2019 and in Senate in January 2020. The bill was signed into law on Jan. 24.

6506148 B2 Patent: Nervous System Manipulation – Is it Real or Just Paranoia?

Imagine someone manipulating how you feel. Of course, no one wants that. But how about being manipulated unknowingly? This is exactly what is happening to your nervous system every time you switch on your TV or computer.

Well, at least according to the 6506148 B2 Patent.

The patent named “Nervous System Manipulation By Electromagnetic Fields From Monitors” was filed in 2001 and published in 2003. The patent was filed by one Hendricus G. Loss (perceived to be a fictitious person as no information about who he really is can be traced).

Is it Worth Any Attention?

We already know that the content displayed on TVs or even on the internet is created in such a way as to influence decisions, such as when making a purchase or standing behind certain beliefs.

The mind control subject has been a topic of discussion for a long time. Although initially considered a conspiracy theory, its reality has been observed in the content displayed by mainstream media.

But how about manipulation through the nervous system?

Science teaches us that the work of the nervous system is to carry messages throughout the body and control your senses. The nervous system, according to neuroscientists, is controlled by the brain.

Now, the brain is said to be a complex bioelectrical organ that produces electric fields.

That’s why it’s believed that you can rewire your brain through techniques such as listening to binaural beats. Scientists also claim to control brain functions with a technique that uses powerful electromagnetic radiation. This technique, known as Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), can jam or excite particular brain circuits.

Think of how you are not allowed to use cell phones in some areas of a hospital or in an airplane (where some only allow use in airplane mode). This is so that the electromagnetic transmission of the phone does not interfere with critical electrical devices.

So if a brain is a bioelectrical organ, is there a possibility of manipulating it?

How it Happens, According to 6506148 B2 Patent

Here is a short excerpt from the patent abstract:

“Physiological effects have been observed in a human subject in response to stimulation of the skin with weak electromagnetic fields that are pulsed with certain frequencies near ½ Hz or 2.4 Hz, such as to excite a sensory resonance. Many computer monitors and TV tubes, when displaying pulsed images, emit pulsed electromagnetic fields of sufficient amplitudes to cause such excitation.

It is, therefore, possible to manipulate the nervous system of a subject by pulsing images displayed on a nearby computer monitor or TV set. For the latter, the image pulsing may be embedded in the program material, or it may be overlaid by modulating a video stream, either as an RF signal or as a video signal. The image displayed on a computer monitor may be pulsed effectively by a simple computer program. For certain monitors, pulsed electromagnetic fields capable of exciting sensory resonances in nearby subjects may be generated even as the displayed images are pulsed with subliminal intensity.”

The US Patent 6506148 B2 is a confirmation of the possibility to manipulate the nervous system. The patent includes 14 claims including how video can be used to manipulate the nervous system.

Is it just a conspiracy theory?

Well, it’s not easy to tell. But we can’t ignore the concerns raised in regards to electromagnetic fields (EMF). The EMF issue has raised so much concern that in May 2015, 190 scientists from 39 nations submitted an Appeal to the United Nations requesting the World Health Organization (WHO) adopt more EMF exposure protective guidelines.

Such concerns are an indication that the patent should not be ignored. It also goes to show that apart from your electronic devices recording, monitoring and watching everything you are doing, they can also influence living organisms’ feelings, perceptions, thoughts and behavior.

Switch off that Screen

Well, this is practically not possible. The dependence on these electronic devices is so high that we are practically immobilized if they were to be turned off. Electronics have become part of human attachment.

The age of the Internet of Things (IoT) doesn’t make it any better. Now that we are surrounded by electromagnetic emitting devices, the patent serves as an alert to the public of the possibility of what could happen if these technologies were used unethically.

Unfortunately, the technology is here to stay. The only option is to minimize the exposure from your EMF emitting devices. Therefore it’s not a bad idea to try something different: read a book, go hiking, take a walk or simply switch off that screen when you can.