Category: Blog

Why Sequence of Returns Risk Matters Now

Sequence of Returns RiskThat year or two when you are closing in on your retirement date, followed by a year or two after you retire, are the worst times for a sustained market decline. Market analysts call this scenario the sequence of returns (SOR) risk – because once your principal has been significantly reduced, there’s not enough time in the market left for you to recover those losses.

Two things will likely happen. First, the amount of retirement income you can withdraw each year is irrevocably reduced. For example, if you were planning to withdraw 4 percent a year from a $350,000 portfolio, you would have received a supplementary income of $14,000 a year. But if your principal drops to $280,000 a year, your 4 percent draw will generate only $11,200 a year. If you need that additional money, you will have to increase your draw to about 5 percent of the principal each year.

This leads us to the second consequence of a market decline: your principal will diminish faster. The longer you live, the greater your chances of running out of money.

How Big Is This Problem?

Because the coronavirus pandemic has sent stock markets reeling over the past few months, SOR risk has become a widespread concern. According to research by Spectrem Group, at the end of 2019, there were 11 million millionaires in the United States. By the end of March this year, at least half a million of those people were no longer millionaires.

While losses among millionaires may be disconcerting, the situation is far direr for middle-class investors, who might not have several hundred thousand dollars to spare in their retirement portfolio.

Strategies To Offset SOR Risk

If the last recession is any indicator, the economic recovery going forward could take several years. That’s not good news for people who were looking forward to retirement. This group may want to seriously consider the merits of delaying retirement and continuing to work longer, such as:

  • Allowing their portfolio time to recover
  • Continuing to contribute to tax-advantaged retirement accounts
  • Enabling their Social Security benefits to accrue higher

Another strategy to help protect your portfolio against future SOR risk is to position a larger allocation to fixed-income assets and/or an annuity. While this might limit your potential for income growth in the future, these assets are backed by more reliable payors and less subject to the vagaries of the stock market. By diversifying your current assets, you can build multiple streams of reliable income to protect you from the future threat of market losses, a global pandemic, or changes in Social Security benefits.

It’s worth considering that once we emerge from this current crisis, legislators will have to find a way to deal with the federal deficit and growing debt. The Social Security program was already projected to cut benefits by 2035 without any new funding solutions. Now, that threat is even further exacerbated by the enormous jump in unemployment numbers. This situation leaves even fewer people paying into the Social Security and Medicare programs.

All of this is why it’s very important to address today’s challenges presented by the sequence of returns risk. Explore ways to develop multiple income streams to protect your current assets and ensure they last throughout your lifetime.

How to Stay Productive When Working from Home

How to Stay Productive When Working from HomeDue to the unprecedented effects of COVID-19, the line between our professional and personal lives has blurred. Trying to take care of job responsibilities from home requires new ways of navigating. Here are a few ideas to help you become more productive while working at home – and stay grounded in these uncertain times.

Dress for Work

As tempting as it might be to stay in your pajamas, don’t. Act as if you’re going into the office: shower put on your work clothes and head to your desk. You’ll feel more focused and professional. According to Heather Yurovsky, founder of Shatter & Shine, one should not underestimate the power of putting on clothes suitable for public viewing. “It makes you feel human, confident and helps draw the line between being at home and being at work,” she says.

Create a Dedicated Space

While working from the kitchen table or couch in your living room might be more comfortable, it also might prohibit your productivity. Set up a home office. Get an extra monitor. Make sure you have dependable internet service. In short, replicate a professional workspace as best you can; one that feels separate from the rest of your home. When your surroundings are more in line with a real office, you’ll be more motivated. Plus, you’ll be able to more easily turn on when your day begins and turn off when it’s over.

Set Up a Plan for the Kids

Even though school’s out, chances are you still have to work. Create a schedule for the kids. Carve out certain hours for activities in designated areas of the house. According to Emily Weinmann of Us Happy Four, one of the best ways to keep the little ones occupied and happy is to prepare activity stations. Another great idea is to prepare snacks the night before and put them in your office, in the fridge or in their rooms. When someone is starving, the snacks will be ready. And finally, relax screen time. When you’re stuck at home and it’s either raining or it’s scalding hot outside, you’ll be grateful for technology.

Keep Regular Hours

If you stick with regular hours, you’ll not only be able to seamlessly transition going back into the office, you’ll also be on the same schedule as your colleagues. Everyone will be working concurrently, so you’ll be more efficient, easier to reach, and productive. When lunchtime comes, leave your home office and eat in the kitchen, the patio, or the backyard. Even though you’re in one place, the simple change of venue will be mentally refreshing.

Set Clear Boundaries

This is especially important if you have other humans in your home. Try your best to discourage intrusions. When you’re in a meeting, shut the door. Lock it if you have to. If your home is more open, put signs in strategic places where people frequent, like the entry to the kitchen or stairs to the basement. This way, they’ll pause and reflect on whether an interruption is really necessary.

Limit Your Intake of News

In a society that’s saturated with news at every turn, it’s tough not to get sucked into the latest tragedy. Be intentional: Turn off the TV during work hours. Don’t visit news sites when you’re at the computer or on your phone. If you feel you must have a bit of news to break up your day, tune in for a few minutes during lunch or in the evening. But even then, be judicious and limit your time. If some story sends you over the edge, turn it off and head outside for a walk. Change the channel. Put on your favorite music.

These days, we’re all doing the best we can, taking life one day at a time. Unless you already work from home or have made a decision that you’ll work from home for the rest of your life, remember that things will change.

Sources

https://www.themuse.com/advice/coronavirus-work-from-home-tips

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryanrobinson/2020/03/14/9-tips-to-be-productive-when-working-at-home-during-covid-19/#2af81a845a38

https://www.todaysparent.com/family/family-life/working-from-home-with-kids-coronavirus/

How IT Spending Will Change When Business Resumes

How IT Spending Will Change When Business ResumesMost states are starting to relax stay-at-home restrictions. As such, businesses are developing plans for bringing employees back to work. Many businesses are already affected by the pandemic and their future looks grim. Specifically, we are going to look at the IT sector and examine what spending might look like in a post-lockdown economy.

Disruption

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented disruption in businesses. As a result, management has tried to reduce costs to survive or risk shutting down. IT departments have suffered the most with major budget cuts due to a reduction in revenue. As a result, non-urgent purchases have been eliminated; initiatives have been suspended; and employees have been terminated.

Of course, technology also has been playing a great role in supporting businesses during the pandemic, especially by enabling work at home and keeping in touch with clients. But there are expectations for major challenges when businesses get back to normal. For instance, the post-coronavirus business world expects travel restrictions, office distancing, business continuity, and pandemic regulations. As for onsite work in the office, challenges will include distributed collaboration, endpoint data protection, scalable administration, and secure access to corporate data.

It also appears that the impact will vary from industry to industry. Companies that depend on face-to-face contact are in danger of lost income and bankruptcy. At the same time, other businesses are thriving.

Consider digital marketing industries. With more businesses moving online, there will be a rise in the purchase of IT-related expenditures such as software. The entertainment sector has found solace in digital platforms, while there is an increase in the work-at-home trend.

The Future

Despite the uncertainties, some predictions can be made.

One thing that is certain is that the impact on IT spending will vary depending on the IT stack. While the infrastructure, branch networking, middleware, and enterprise apps might see a drop, areas such as communication/collaboration, cloud storage, security, and compliance will likely see an increase in spending as more people work remotely.

While the impact on the IT industry will definitely vary, we could see a lot of new innovations. Such innovations might include customer-facing and worker productivity apps. Some companies may increase spending on new innovations to help outperform their competition.

Another factor affecting IT spending is the size of a business. While big businesses may get back to normal after a few months, small businesses have to tread carefully. As such, IT spending for different-sized businesses will not be similar.

A decision to have employees continue working at home means that IT expenditures will take a different shape. While there will be less need for office equipment, there will be an increase in spending to enable offsite work.

There could also be more spending by businesses investing in continuity strategies such as more remote locations, new training in information and communications technology (ICT) and automation of processes.

This also will depend on business operations. Consider a business that had already migrated to the cloud before the COVID-19 pandemic. Such businesses did not suffer much disruption compared to those still using on-premise applications and proprietary data centers. Thus, IT spending for both types of businesses will vary in the future.

Lastly, businesses will want to invest in projects that are likely to provide a return on investment faster.

Conclusion

The disruption to businesses by the COVID-19 pandemic is like none previously encountered. One thing is certain: Things will not bounce back to the known normal. Rather, we should expect a new normal. And, as we have seen through the examination of certain IT expenditures, the success of each industry is dependent on various factors.

In the Wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic, Congress Passes the Most Expensive Single Spending Bill in American History

Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act (HR 266) – This is a multilayered legislative bill divided into four distinct sections. Phase 1 authorized funding for coronavirus preparedness and response; specifically, for measures such as vaccine development and public health funding. Most of the money was allocated to the Department of Health and Human Services. Approximately 81 percent of funds were allocated domestically, with the other 19 percent allocated internationally.

In the Wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic, Congress Passes the Most Expensive Single Spending Bill in American HistoryPhase 2 allocated $104 billion for three specific objectives: 1) Require private health insurance plans and Medicare to cover COVID-19 testing; 2) Expand unemployment insurance by $1 billion and loosen up eligibility requirements; 3) Provide for paid sick leave at an employee’s full salary, up to $511 per day, and paid family leave at two-thirds of a worker’s usual salary.

Phase 3 provided stimulus checks to individuals and “grants” to small businesses meeting specific criteria, such as keeping employees on the payroll for two months. This phase of the bill represents by far the most expensive single spending bill ever enacted in American history, at about $2.2 trillion.

And finally, the last phase of the bill provided funding to replenish the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) for small businesses and shore up public health measures, such as virus testing and hospital funding. The bill was signed into law by the president on April 24.

VA Tele-Hearing Modernization Act (HR 4771) – This bill amended previous guidelines to allow appellants to appear in cases before the Board of Veterans’ Appeals by picture and voice transmission from locations outside the Department of Veterans Affairs. The bill was introduced by Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC) on Oct. 21, 2019, and signed into law by the president on April 10.

Safeguarding America’s First Responders Act of 2020 (S 3607) – Sponsored by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), this bill was introduced on May 5 and passed in the Senate on May 14. The legislation is designed to extend death benefits to public safety officers whose deaths are caused by COVID-19, and for other purposes. The bill is currently under consideration in the House.

Law Enforcement Suicide Data Collection Act (S 2746) – Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) introduced this legislation on Oct. 30, 2019. The act would require the director of the FBI to provide information on suicide rates in law enforcement, and for other purposes. It was passed in the Senate on May 14 and is currently being considered by the House.

HEROES Act (HR 6800) – This bill was introduced on May 12 by Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY). In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, this bill is designed to provide emergency supplemental appropriations for a variety of applications, including assistance to state, local, tribal and territorial governments; further, expand paid sick days, family and medical leave; unemployment compensation; nutrition and food assistance programs; housing assistance; payments to farmers; and the Paycheck Protection Program. It also outlines several potential tax credits and deductions and requires employers to develop and implement infectious disease exposure control plans. The House passed this bill on May 15; it is currently in the Senate for consideration.

Be Right About Free Money: Potential Legal Risks of the Paycheck Protection Loan Program

Paycheck Protection Loan ProgramOne of the most important provisions of the CARES Act for small businesses is called the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). The PPP is a $349 billion program designed to assist small businesses (fewer than 500 employees) facing financial difficulties as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic through specifically structured loans.

The loan program offers funding to cover payroll for up to eight weeks, with the intent of stemming from unemployment. These loans can be forgiven and essentially become a grant if your business meets certain criteria with no need to repay the money.

As the old saying goes, there’s no such thing as a free lunch – or in this case, free government money. There are potential legal risks that could jeopardize the forgivability of the loan.

Conditional Grants

Another way to look at the PPP loans is as conditional grants. The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) notes that loans will be forgiven in full if the funds are used for appropriate costs. Covered costs include payroll, mortgage interest, rent and utilities. Further, the payroll costs must account for at least 75 percent of the loan proceeds used. The employer needs to maintain or quickly rehire employees and maintain wage and salary levels in order to receive 100 percent forgiveness.

The Devil’s in the Certification Details

The loan application process requires certain certifications. Businesses that are still operating need to certify that the current economic uncertainty makes the loan necessary to keep operations going.

If this seems vague, it’s because it is. There probably isn’t a small business out there that is not facing significant uncertainty in the current climate. The problem is that the certification standard the PPP lays out is extremely subjective. As a result, with the encouragement for businesses to apply, many may do so under the impression that they will have their loan fully forgiven to only run into trouble later if they don’t meet the certification standards.

Legal Risks

By not providing any definition about the nature or extent of the required impact to operations that would make the loan request “necessary to support ongoing operations,” the SBA is making both applicants and lenders apprehensive.

Some law firms are even warning clients via their newsletters about potential legal exposure under the False Claims Act (FCA). Legal counsels are cautioning that a misrepresentation included in an application could result in FCA liability. Businesses must navigate between being as aggressive as possible to bolster their application while staying within the rules of the program.

More Certification Guidance is Needed

The government agencies involved need to provide more clear and objective guidance on the conditions needed to meet the certification requirements of the loan application process. Without clear and definable guidance as to what constitutes facing economic uncertainty, small businesses could face problems in the future.

Objective criteria such as a percentage of revenue decline or order capacity would provide a rather bright-line test and give both guidance to businesses and confidence in the process.